Overview
During his 13 February speech, Abdul Malik Al Houthi reaffirmed Yemen’s role in the Red Sea conflict, portraying maritime attacks as justified retaliation against US and Israeli actions and warning of continued strikes on Israeli-linked shipping and US interests. He hinted at escalation through missile and drone attacks, with the probability of conflict currently at 60%, potentially rising to 80-90% if tensions escalate, or falling below 50% with diplomatic efforts. Meanwhile, in Puntland, pirate groups have exploited security shifts as the Puntland Maritime Police Force (PMPF) focuses on ISIS, weakening counter-piracy efforts. With Trump’s recent statements adding uncertainty, maritime operators are urged to stay vigilant and monitor developments.
