Red Sea Threat Monitor 10 January 2025

Summary

Militant activity in Somalia and Yemen has seen a complex mix of operations and counter-measures involving groups like Al Shabaab, ISIS, and Al Qaeda. Al Shabaab’s operational activity has decreased since January due to intensified efforts by the Somali National Army (SNA), South West State authorities, and Somali intelligence, with targeted actions undermining their networks and leadership. Conversely, ISIS in Puntland has escalated its operations, including IED and mortar attacks, despite setbacks such as the loss of 40 militants and significant infrastructure to Puntland forces.

In Yemen, Al Qaeda continues to demonstrate resilience, executing UAV strikes and sniper attacks against UAE-backed Aden-government aligned Shabwa Forces, while acknowledging the loss of two senior leaders in US airstrikes. Both Al Qaeda and ISIS have increasingly adopted drones, with evidence suggesting ISIS in Puntland may be sourcing drones through arms trade with Yemeni Houthis, highlighting the evolving tactics and interconnected dynamics of these networks.

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